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Whitepaper

Alfa Signal - The space & launch economy

Introduction

The global space economy reached $630 billion in 2025, projected to $1.8 trillion by 2035. Two events are repricing it now: SpaceX's S-1 targets a June listing at $1.75-2.0 trillion, and the FCC lifted a spectrum cap that had constrained LEO broadband by 7x.

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The defense floor is structural, not cyclical.

Global military spending reached $2.89 trillion in 2025. The U.S. FY2027 defense budget calls for $1.5 trillion.

Launch providers are becoming space primes.

Rocket Lab's vertical integration won the $816M SDA contract. Selling rockets is low-margin; owning the full stack is not.

Space is a contested warfighting domain.

China quadrupled its satellites since 2019. Congress earmarked $25 billion for Golden Dome. The DoD now demands 24-hour responsive launch capability.

Sovereign space capabilities are now off-the-shelf.

Fewer than 15 countries had sovereign space programs five years ago; today there are over 60. Planet Labs booked $600M in sovereign wins last year.

Legacy primes face a structural mismatch.

The Space Force wants high-cadence mass production. Lockheed carries $3.3 billion in classified reach-forward losses. These organizations were not designed for this market.

Cash flow is the only honest metric.

Constellation CapEx cycles repeat every 5-7 years. The market is now pricing manufacturing scale and balance sheet runway, not DCF projections.

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40 pages. 19 companies. Engineering physics connected to financial outcomes.

May 20, 2026
In the 1860s, investors didn't model the price of iron. They modeled what the railroad would enable. The commercial space economy is at that same inflection point right now, and two catalysts are forcing the repricing this quarter.

Introduction

The global space economy reached $630 billion in 2025, projected to $1.8 trillion by 2035. Two events are repricing it now: SpaceX's S-1 targets a June listing at $1.75-2.0 trillion, and the FCC lifted a spectrum cap that had constrained LEO broadband by 7x.

 ---

The defense floor is structural, not cyclical.

Global military spending reached $2.89 trillion in 2025. The U.S. FY2027 defense budget calls for $1.5 trillion.

Launch providers are becoming space primes.

Rocket Lab's vertical integration won the $816M SDA contract. Selling rockets is low-margin; owning the full stack is not.

Space is a contested warfighting domain.

China quadrupled its satellites since 2019. Congress earmarked $25 billion for Golden Dome. The DoD now demands 24-hour responsive launch capability.

Sovereign space capabilities are now off-the-shelf.

Fewer than 15 countries had sovereign space programs five years ago; today there are over 60. Planet Labs booked $600M in sovereign wins last year.

Legacy primes face a structural mismatch.

The Space Force wants high-cadence mass production. Lockheed carries $3.3 billion in classified reach-forward losses. These organizations were not designed for this market.

Cash flow is the only honest metric.

Constellation CapEx cycles repeat every 5-7 years. The market is now pricing manufacturing scale and balance sheet runway, not DCF projections.

 ---

Download now

40 pages. 19 companies. Engineering physics connected to financial outcomes.

Introduction

The global space economy reached $630 billion in 2025, projected to $1.8 trillion by 2035. Two events are repricing it now: SpaceX's S-1 targets a June listing at $1.75-2.0 trillion, and the FCC lifted a spectrum cap that had constrained LEO broadband by 7x.

 ---

The defense floor is structural, not cyclical.

Global military spending reached $2.89 trillion in 2025. The U.S. FY2027 defense budget calls for $1.5 trillion.

Launch providers are becoming space primes.

Rocket Lab's vertical integration won the $816M SDA contract. Selling rockets is low-margin; owning the full stack is not.

Space is a contested warfighting domain.

China quadrupled its satellites since 2019. Congress earmarked $25 billion for Golden Dome. The DoD now demands 24-hour responsive launch capability.

Sovereign space capabilities are now off-the-shelf.

Fewer than 15 countries had sovereign space programs five years ago; today there are over 60. Planet Labs booked $600M in sovereign wins last year.

Legacy primes face a structural mismatch.

The Space Force wants high-cadence mass production. Lockheed carries $3.3 billion in classified reach-forward losses. These organizations were not designed for this market.

Cash flow is the only honest metric.

Constellation CapEx cycles repeat every 5-7 years. The market is now pricing manufacturing scale and balance sheet runway, not DCF projections.

 ---

Download now

40 pages. 19 companies. Engineering physics connected to financial outcomes.